A Breakdown of July Home Sales in Forsyth County

The market so far this year has not been nearly as dismal as 2009, with sales of homes in Forsyth County for the first half of 2010 being up over the same period in 2009 by 21.5%. It’s a good sign but the question on everyone’s mind is “what will the second half be like?”. Will we see another dip? Will sales be flat? It’s hard to say for sure but activity has noticeably dropped in June and July.

So, I wanted to go back and dissect the sales numbers a bit for the month of July, try to see what they are made of and determine if there is anything important we can take away from the numbers. The first thing I noticed is that while sales for the first half of the year are up, they are down for July 2010 (182 sales) vs. July 2009 (214 sales) by 17.5%. Here is a breakdown of the sales:

• 139 Regular Re-sales. These sold at an average of 89% of original asking price.
• 36 Distressed Sales (foreclosure or short sale). These sold at an average of 85% of original asking price.
• 3 Corporate Sales (company relocation). These sold at an average of 94% of original asking price.
• 4 Lake Properties (with a boat dock). These sold at an average of 78% of asking price.

The first thing I noticed is that distressed sales are low, not extremely low, but at 20% of total sales they are lower than the average for Metro Atlanta - which was 33% in Q1 and 24% in Q2 of this year.

But there is another big thing that jumped out at me. The lake properties sold at a lower sales price ratio than even the distressed properties. Why is that? Here is the breakdown of those four sales:

Are sellers on Lake Lanier getting beat up because the lake isn’t desirable any more? We have water so that’s not the problem. Even with this small sampling of sales there is a pretty even spread in price ranges. What’s the problem? I have not gone back in and run comps for these 4 properties but I suspect that lake sellers aren’t being realistic with their list prices, unlike the third property. Ultimately it means a much longer listing period and lower final sales price in the end.

The truth is that a narrow sampling of 4 properties isn’t large enough to say this is a widespread issue, I may pull the numbers for the first half of the year to see what it actually looks like and post this later. But, it does illustrate a point that pricing appropriately will ultimately get you more money in the end. This is true no matter where your home is located. It’s better to say no to four low offers than get no offers at all.

So, back to the original question, “What’s the second half of the year going to be like?”. It’s not an exciting answer but the truth is slow and challanging, but slowly improving. There are positive signs but with still high levels of inventory you have to offer a great product. Excellent condition, priced right, and if you have something unique - you have a step up on the competition.

Tags: Forsyth County Home Sales, Market Statistics