Forsyth County Q2 Numbers Show Continued Positive Trend

I’m on vacation this week so I’m slacking on the blog posts. I have two charts that show a continued trend in Forysth County for home sales. The first chart shows the change in the number of homes sold as compared to the same quarter of the previous year. As you can see, the number of homes sold in Forsyth County for 2nd Qtr. 2010 are up 23.7% over 2nd Qtr. 2009. While we are still seeing fluctuations on a monthly and quarterly basis, the trend line is a slow but steady recovery since the market bottom in early 2009.

The second chart further echos the positive trend, showing the Sales Price as a percent of Original List Price. The percentage of foreclosure sales moderated somewhat in 2nd Qtr. 2010, possibly allowing sellers to better take advantage of the homebuyer incentive market stimulation and receive a higher portion of their asking prices.

If you’re interested in knowing how your home compares to other homes on the market in your area, just let us know - we’re happy to help.

Tags: Forsyth County, Market Statistics

That seems to make sense….

Metro Atlanta

The June 2010 numbers for home sales data in metro Atlanta just came out and as you would expect, the number of home sales is down over June 2009. It was widely reported that once the tax credit was over we would see a drop in sales so it isn’t a surprise. For the metro area the number of homes sold in June, not including lags, is 4,326 - a 6.9% drop over June 2009. The average sales price for single family detached was $214,694 which translates to a 1.3% increase over June 2009 and is $40,000 higher than the market low in February of 2009! That is good news.

Interestingly, townhome and condo sales are up significantly. An increase of 4.5% for June 2010 over 2009. It is the 11the consecutive year-over-year increase and with lags reported later, may end up as the highest number of sales since August of 2007. However, as you would expect, the reason for increased sales is the vast number of deals out there. The average sales price for single family attached was $145,856 which is an 8.6% decline over June 2009. So, if you are selling a townhome or condo the good news is people are buying them, the bad news is they’re buying at depressed prices.

Forsyth County

Comparatively, the number of homes sold in Forsyth County in June was 228, an increase of 18% over June 2009. However, the average sales price was $296,603, 10% less than the average sales price for 2009. I think the biggest reason for the reduction in the average sales price is the number of first-time home buyers purchasing for the tax credit. Over 65% of all home sales in Forsyth County for June 2010 was under $300,000. That is a great indication of affordability but not great news for that home seller priced above $750,000 which accounted for less than 1% of sales in June 2010.

Single family attached (townhome / condo) sales in Forsyth County have doubled from June 09′ to June 10′…..wait for it….from 13 sales to 26 sales! It’s hard to get excited about something doubling from nothing to next-to-nothing. The average sales price did go down by 7.5% to $202,217.

So What’s It All Mean?

It means Forsyth County is a bright spot in the metro area, a fact that I don’t think will surprise anyone reading the blog. We have seen some stabilization and, in fact, are selling more homes on average than many other areas but are still feeling downward pressure on pricing. In short, we’re heading in the right direction but have a long way to go.

Tags: condos, Forsyth County Home Sales, single family homes, townhomes

It’s not always easy, but it’s never that complicated.

If you read the title of this post and think to yourself, “no kidding”, don’t stop reading yet. While it may seem obvious to you, it isn’t that obvious to everyone. I have to point the finger at my own industry a bit because I’ve heard from more than just a couple of home sellers recently who sat across their kitchen table from an agent who had a print-out from the tax records and pointed to the assessed value of their home. Their point was to say, your home isn’t worth what you think it is. If someone is telling you your home is worth what the tax assessor says it’s worth….call me.

The Art of Valuing Your Home

There are five people who set “values” for any particular home. The Seller, Buyer, Agent, Tax Man and Appraiser. In a perfect world those numbers are all close together, but in reality the seldom are. And it’s no surprise that a home seller is going to value their home higher than a potential buyer. What’s just as important as the actual value placed on the home is the valuation process the person valuing your home used.

If you live in a large community of similar homes and there have been many recent sales, then that process is very easy. But this market has caused many home owners who might have moved to wait until they feel things have improved or until they are in a “have to move” situation. Consequently, it’s not uncommon to have a community where no homes have sold in the past 12 months. Or, all homes that have sold have been on slabs and now you want to put your home with a basement on the market. That leaves you in a spot where there may be NO comparable sales in your immediate community.

There are several ways to approach that. And you will need to look at sales comparables outside your community, which is something banks making loans don’t like to do. You may have to use a very old sale comparable and then adjust it down for market conditions for instance. Square footage should be taken into consideration as well as lot, community, schools, etc. Some of these things are very subjective and difficult to put a hard number on. For instance, how much more is a home worth if it’s on a community lake as opposed to an interior lot? How much less is a home worth if it’s on a busy road?

The Bottom Line

At the end of the day (or end of the listing presentation), there are 4 questions you should be able to ask yourself and be comfortable with:

1. Did they miss anything on your property? (beds / baths / sq. ft.) This must all be correct.
2. Do you understand exactly how they came up with the price? Is their method clear and understandable?
3. Does their method make sense, even if you don’t like the number?
4. Is their number vastly different from another persons evaluation? (Get more than one opinion). If it is different, ask both parties why.

It’s a challenging market with many unknowns but we don’t have to approach it with a “let’s see what sticks” mentality. If you want to know what you’re home is worth, just ask.  info@thenorthgroup.com

Tags: Appraisals

15

Total number of properties in Forsyth County listed with stables. That is out of 2119 total listings. Is it a sellers market for horse properties in Cumming?

On the last day of each month I post a “Big Number” or interesting figure related to real estate in our area.

Tags: Horse Properties, Stables, The Big Number

absent, dead, extinct, few and far between, hallucinatory, hypothetical, illusory, imaginary, insubstantial, mythical, null and void.  Pick your synonym, either way it aint’ happening.

The water level on Lake Lanier has been back for a while, but the lake buyer has been elusive. Or is it that the Lake Seller hasn’t adjusted their expectations? With nearly 500 lake homes w/ boat docks available and only 75 sales year-to-date, Lake Homes are not flying off the shelf. Take a look at the break down of price ranges in the following chart:

As you can see, if you are trying to sell your home on Lake Lanier for more than $750,000 the chance of getting is sold is unlikely, remote, improbable, absurd, doubtful (yes, I’m having fun with the Thesaurus today). The price ranges that are moving are under $500,000; with a handful of homes selling in the $500k - $750k range. With 84 homes available on Lake Lanier, over $1M and only one sold in the price range so far this year, it becomes way more than a long shot.

No, I don’t Want to Super-Size That!

Most of the reasons for this are fairly obvious I think. Money is harder to get in those price ranges, and disposable income is down. Many of the homes on Lake Lanier in the higher price ranges are 2nd homes and there are not many 2nd home buyers in the market anywhere right now. But what isn’t too obvious is that people are buying more modestly, they are no longer super-sizing their purchases. There are even local moves where the primary factor is “we don’t need this much house”.

In the same vein, most lake buyers are looking for a modest weekender, not a palace. The McMansion days are over and I don’t think they will be back soon. For those buyers who want to search lake lanier for that trophy lake home, it’s your market - you own it. But for sellers in that price range, if you don’t need to sell….well I think you know where I’m going…..

Tags: Lake Lanier Cottage, Luxury Lake Lanier Homes

No, Hedgewood Homes has not been resurrected but some of the same principles from Hedgewood (and an investor) have purchased 50 lots in Vickery and currently have 2 spec homes going up. The lots break down to 14 townhomes and 36 single family lots, most of which are on slabs, with just a 4 basement lots.

What Will Be Built?

One big concern homeowners have when builders buy foreclosed lots and start building again is; what will the homes look like. How big will they be and how much will they sell for. Resident’s won’t need to be concerned with the product planned for Vickery. Homes will have the wood shingle roofs, detached garages and courtyards - much like the homes that currently exist in the community. The builders will be Randy and Brian Schiltz of T-Olive Properties.

The homes will range in price from $268,900 for the 2-bedroom Primrose Cottage up to $452,500 for the 4-bedroom Ridenour with double covered porches. Twelve models in all with the same timeless architecture that makes Vickery such a wonderfully unique community to live in. Interiors will feature open plans with 10′ beamed ceilings, hardwood floors, custom cabinetry and covered porches. Two items that are not included in the base packages, which used to be included, are hardwood floors in the bedrooms and an upgraded kitchen appliance package.

It Takes A Village

Personally I’m excited to know that building will be going on again in Vickery. The community has taken a hit during the downturn but this is a good opportunity for home buyers who want to live there and take advantage of great pricing. Vickery is a unique product that doesn’t exist in too many places outside the perimeter. Crabapple and Downtown Woodstock are the only other options. The 64-million dollar question is what will happen with the Village.

Wachovia took over the commercial property but has managed in the past to do a better job of running retail vendors off rather than pulling new stores in. A failed opportunity to sell last year to an investor was the turning point - but I’m told that it’s all been changed. A new team will be focusing on attracting new business.

There are still a few places to eat; Robin Hood Tavern, Tanners, Cinco’s and Sidney’s Pizza. Most of the stores are gone - but the The Flower Post  is still holding down the fort, much to the pleasure of locals who love the unique flower designs and vintage containers.

As more homes are built and sold that should become easier to do, but make no mistake, the success of the Village is the key to the success of the community. I don’t think it’s a question of if but when. I hope the new team can step up to the plate and make it happen sooner rather than later.

Let us know if you have questions about options, features, lot availability and floor plans. 678.608.2200 or info@thenorthgroup.com

Tags: New Construction, Vickery Homes For Sale, Vickery Village

As reported in Newsweek’s annual ranking of the top High Schools in the nation, South Forsyth High School ranked 199, just behind two other north Atlanta High Schools Walton and North Gwinnett .  There are 19 Georgia high schools in the top 500, with 13 of them being located in North Atlanta. I’ve highlighted those schools below among the list of Georgia High Schools in the top 500 nationally.

Public schools are ranked according to the number of Advanced Placement, Intl. Baccalaureate and/or Cambridge tests taken by all students at a school and divided by the number of graduating seniors. All of the schools on the list have an index of at least 1.000; they are in the top 6 percent of public schools measured this way.

Note: Subs. Lunch % is the percentage of students receiving federally subsidized meals. E and E % stands for equity and excellence percentage: the portion of all graduating seniors at a school that had at least one passing grade on one AP or IB test.

** Includes IB. Nearly all other schools use just AP tests.

Tags: North Atlanta High School Rankings

There are five values for every property. The Seller’s, Buyers, Tax Accessor’s, The Realtor’s and the Appraiser’s. In theory they should all be close together.

I consider myself to be conservative when it comes to property values. When I do a market analysis for a client i make it clear what the top and bottom ends of the value range are and identify where a particular property would fall within that range. There is no benefit in having a property go under contract only to have a bank appraiser give a value less than the sales price - we all know what the market is like. On top of that, in this market most buyers don’t want to pay top price in a community. So while it’s a great goal to sell a property  for more than we think it’s worth, it’s very difficult to do.

When I let a seller know what I believe their home will sell for I always say “if we get more great - I’m happy to be wrong”. But, it may be a challenge justifying the sales price. Banks don’t like appraisers going outside the community for comparable sales.

So Why are They Still a Joke?

Let’s start with the value of features. What value two appraisers put on a finished basement vs unfinished, or a pool or a 3-car garage vs a 2-car is rarely the same.What is the value for an extra bedroom? What is it for finished basement space vs. unfinished. A fair question and a little variance from appraiser to appraiser is understandable. But what if they don’t give it additional value. It happens.

Then there are bad comparables. Those range from a straight up value comparison between a mold-ridden foreclosure to a renovated home or an appraiser comparing a home without a basement to one with a basement but not making an adjustment. It doesn’t happen too often, but it does happen and has recently to us.

Lastly, and I know I’m going to ruffle some appraiser feathers, but on more than one occasion we’ve had an appraiser come from another part of the state to value a home in Milton. Yes, in theory it shouldn’t matter, but when you’re told that the lake in The Manor Golf & Country Club is a glorified retention pond it’s hard to contain the anger or have a dim view of that appraiser. A Tom Watson designed golf course and a retention pond….right.

So, what do you do to prepare?

First, create a list of all improvements made to your property while you have owned it. Put the costs for each improvement on there and get copies of receipts if possible. In addition, have your agent pull their own comparables and leave them on the table, with the list of improvements, for the appraiser. I do this for all properties when I think we might run into trouble - I’m going to do it for every listing from now on, no matter how far under market value I feel we may be.

The worst part about getting a low value on your home is that the appraiser has the ability to listen to your argument and re-evaluate the appraisal if you provide them data showing that they may not have considered something that is valid - but they won’t do it. Even when the lender and underwriter are asking them to revisit the information.

We all know that values got “out-of-whack” a couple of years ago and needed a reality check but I think the pendulum has swung too far by not having a mechanism for disputing a value or comparable on an appraisal. Caveat venditor “Let The Seller Beware”.

Tags: Appraisals, Home Values, Incompetence

12

The number of bank owned properties on Lake Lanier with a dock. That is out of a total of 493 lake homes available. Clearly a sellers market if you are looking for foreclosures.

On the last day of each month I post a “Big Number” or interesting figure related to real estate in our area.

Well…sort of.

I learned something new recently and I have to admit, I still can’t believe it’s true. We had a buyer under contract to close on a foreclosure by the end of the month. Of course, with foreclosures you have the ability to perform an inspection but typically they are purchased as-is. Banks usually won’t make repairs. Prior to the closing one of the last things on a buyers list that usually gets done is lining up their home-owners insurance. By the time buyers get around to contacting their insurer we are well past all the due-diligence and contingency periods.

Shocked!

So, we all were quite amazed when the buyers insurer told them that there was a previous claim on the property for a new roof, which was paid out to the previous owner. No proof of repair was ever provided to the insurance company so the claim was still “open”. Because of this, the buyers insurer said there was pre-existing damage that had been paid on and they would not insure this home. That’s right, they would not insure the home. After checking with other insurance providers we realized that this was the answer we were going to get everywhere.

The sort of part….

What they will do is provide insurance but the repairs must be completed within 60 days of closing. We’re in the process of negotiating with the bank to reduce the sales price of the home by the amount of a new roof and we feel pretty sure that we’ll get that amended. But I have to believe there are more than a few homeowners out there who took some insurance money without making repairs. In any case, this is something that will need to be clarified during negotiations moving forward and some well crafted stipulations will be added to our contracts.

This was news to us and I thought it might be news to you. Has anyone run into this before?

Tags: Buying Foreclosures, Home Owners Insurance